"How Do you Solve a Problem Like Marianne?"
The move to financial repression and Capital Nationalism entails a return of home bias for savers. Countries particularly reliant upon foreign savings, especially if they are highly geared, will see recession and a credit crisis as the repatriation of capital forces their bond yields higher and their economic growth and asset prices lower.
France is particularly exposed as only 24% of its government bond market is owned by its own savers and the assets of the banking system are equivalent to 400% of the country’s GDP. The country has a high and rapidly rising private sector debt service ratio.
If the ECB does ‘whatever it takes’ to ‘preserve the euro’ will they impose capital controls on France as they did in 2013 in Cyprus and 2015 in Greece? What are the consequences for world financial markets when France, through the imposition of capital controls, brings the world the largest peacetime de facto sovereign default in history?
Guest Speaker: Russell Napier, Global Macro Strategist, The Solid Ground Research
When: Wednesday, Nov 18th with two session times
To be sent joining details: Register to Nuavena